A war of liberation? (16 January 2003)
Published in Labour Left Briefing, February 2003.

A confidential and high-level UN report that was written to assist with contingency planning in the event of a war on Iraq was recently leaked to a British campaign group. The document, entitled "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" examines the effects of an invasion on the well-being of a population whom President Bush assured his troops they would be "liberating".

Based on the assessments of the UN agencies some of whom have been working in Iraq since before the Gulf War, the findings of the document are startling. In planning for the numbers who will require medical treatment, it estimates that "as many as 500,000 could require treatment to a greater or lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries". It also finds that over three million people, including two million children, across the country will face "dire" malnutrition and require "therapeutic feeding".

The number of casualties is in part a consequence of the comprehensive sanctions regime that the Iraqi people have endured for twelve years. As the report acknowledges, most Iraqis are "highly dependent" upon a Government ration for their basic needs. Some 60% - 16 million people - are described as having no means other than the ration for their primary foodstuffs. In addition, all but the wealthiest have no savings or disposable assets, and so would be unable to purchase primary goods during an invasion even if they became available. Indeed, the sanctions regime propped up by the US and UK "has served to increase dependence on the Government as almost the sole provider".

In this regard, the UN report recognises that Iraqis are in a position of considerably greater vulnerability than they were in the 1991 Gulf War. The more reliable estimate of the death toll in 1991, commissioned by the US Census Bureau, found that there were 111,000 "excess deaths" attributable to the deterioration of the health care system (out of a total of 205,000 excess fatalities). In 2003, with the health, sanitation and water systems in a significantly worse condition than they were in then, and with the prospect of sustained bombardment and ground warfare inside Iraq, the numbers will almost certainly be greater. The UN predicts that the "the outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions is very likely". The scale of the problem is revealed by the World Health Organisation estimate of 400,000 casualties from the indirect effects of war.

Despite the rhetoric of humanitarian warfare from the US and UK governments, there is little evidence that the danger and damage anticipated for Iraqi civilians is being taken seriously in these quarters. Tony Blair could alter his policy from the war on Yugoslavia, and rule out targeting the electricity network and the transportation system inside the country. Sparing the civilian infrastructure would undoubtedly reduce the death toll of the war. His failure to do this may just be a good indication of the real priorities of the current government.

Where consideration for Iraqi civilians has been announced, it seems that window-dressing has triumphed over any substantive consideration of the needs of the people. The US military command has made it known that it will be setting up "displaced civilian camps" to accommodate the large refugee flows anticipated. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has estimated that there will be some 900,000 Iraqi refugees requiring assistance. The US military's estimate that provides the basis for their humanitarian planning? Between 10,000 and 15,000.