No Signs to Peace on the Roadmap (14 May 2003)

After months of delay, the US finally released the "Roadmap", purportedly for a "permanent two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict", on 30 April. The very fact that the US was able to continually postpone its publication - firstly, until the Israeli elections, then until the appointment of Mahmud Abbas as the Palestinian prime minister, and then until the formation of a new Palestinian cabinet - was itself revealing.

The Roadmap is under the nominal responsibility of the Quartet: the US, EU, UN and Russia. But the US has expropriated the process to the extent that it was scarcely worthy of comment that its officials - led by David Sutterfield, deputy assistant secretary of state - authored the text alone, and the US chose the timing and conditions of the Roadmap's release, to ensure that it was after the occupation of Iraq was complete. As with the Oslo process (1993-2001), a key party to the conflict, which arms and finances Israel to fight a war against the Palestinians, has set itself up as the arbiter. In these conditions, it is hardly a surprise that the Roadmap is premised on the belief that the problem that needs to be solved is Palestinian resistance to the occupation, not the occupation itself.

The basic format of the Roadmap is a three-stage process. In the first stage, the Palestinian side must renounce violence, dismantle "terrorist capabilities" (including the confiscation of all weapons from a heavily militarised society), restructure the Palestinian security forces, and coordinate with Israel and the US to apprehend and incarcerate "terrorists", in line with the 2001 ceasefire plan of CIA director George Tenet. All Arab states must also cease "public and private funding and all other forms of support" for Palestinian groups that use violence. If, and only if, this is successful, and Israeli security is assured, will the Israeli army be required to withdraw "progressively" from areas occupied since the start of the intifada - that is, the urban areas that were granted to Palestinian self-rule under the Oslo accords, themselves forming only a small portion of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

When this small redeployment is judged to be successful, then there can be movement to the second stage. This involves an international conference that creates a "provisional Palestinian state", whose first "primary goal" listed is "continued comprehensive security performance and effective security cooperation". If it fulfils this role in protecting Israel, then a "permanent status agreement" can be reached.

During this entire period, there are no obligations on Israel to stop its policy of assassinations. Israel is required not to engage in "attacks on civilians", but it claims that it does not do this in any case: instead, it attacks "terrorists", and civilians - including peace activists, journalists, doctors and diplomats, are sometimes "caught in the crossfire". In effect, the Roadmap gives Israel a free hand to kill whoever it labels a "terrorist", and expects the Palestinian Authority to serve as its guard in protecting them from the reprisals.

The practical implications of the Roadmap were demonstrated immediately after its launch. Israeli forces invaded the Gaza Strip and killed 12 people, including a two-year old child. As Israel claimed that it was striking at a Hamas target, the action went uncriticised. On the same day, a suicide bomber - from the UK - detonated a bomb in Tel Aviv, killing three. This served to justify Israel's refusal to begin the implementation of the Roadmap's timetable. With Secretary of State Powell on a visit to Israel, Ariel Sharon said to Powell's apparent approval that political progress could only come with "a genuine war against terrorism by the Palestinians".

Israel in effect has two interconnected strategies. The first is to halt any moves towards a peace agreement, in the knowledge that this would require political and economic costs - in terms of the removal of settlements and the forfeiting of resources currently under their control - that the present Israeli government is not willing to pay. The Israeli leadership knows that if it targets the leadership of political groups in the West Bank and Gaza, there will be suicide bombings and fiery rhetoric in response. And so the implementation of the peace plan will not begin, and Israel will be able to claim to its US audience that responsibility for this bloody stalemate lies with the Palestinians.

Secondly, and more ominously, the Israeli leadership knows the likely result of an attempt by the PA to dismantle all other armed movements in the occupied territories. Muhammad Dahlan, now commanding the new Palestinian security forces at the explicit request of the US administration, is known for his willingness to assist Israel is killing Hamas activists. If this approach can be foisted onto the Palestinians, a civil war would be the probable result. This would give Israel the justification for maintaining its grip on the territories, and even cast the occupation forces in the role of peacekeepers. The Roadmap may have been launched with a claim to be bringing peace, but all the signs on the map are to entrenching the occupation.

Author: Glen Rangwala

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